A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
